New Jersey Weather and Climate Network

For Second Consecutive Year, Winter is Slow to Relinquish Its Grip: March 2015 Recap

Snow on March 5

For the second consecutive year, March served as a meteorological exclamation point on an active cold and snowy season. As in 2013/14, this season had below-average November temperatures, milder-than-average December readings, and below-average January, February, and March tallies. The March temperature this year averaged 35.8°, which is 5.3° below normal and ranks as the 14th coldest since 1895.

This was also the snowiest March statewide and in central NJ since 1993. The northern counties averaged 13.6" (which is 7.5" above normal), the central region was at 14.9" (+10.0"), and the southern counties 8.6" (+5.6"). The state as a whole averaged 11.5" (+7.2"), which is the 13th snowiest March on record. For the season through March snowfall statewide has averaged 34.5" (+8.4"), with the north 50.5" (+15.8"), central 41.4" (+14.4"), and south 22.3" (+2.3"). This is the northern division's first back-to-back 50"+ seasons since the winters of 1903/04 and 1904/05.

March rain and melted snow accumulated to a statewide average of 4.95". This is 0.72" above normal and ranks as the 32nd wettest.

Warm Evenings in New Jersey

Heat wave photo

Daily temperatures naturally fluctuate from week-to week and year-to-year (factoring out the seasonal “march” of temperature). Thus when temperature trends emerge over decades, it sparks a special interest here in the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist. We are in the midst of a project to examine prolonged heat episodes throughout the state and have found some evidence for recent increases in such events. As impressive winter cold slowly comes to an end in NJ is there a better time to present some of our heat results? Of course not!

Our study involves examining daily maximum and minimum temperatures for seven stations distributed across the state, each with 100-plus years of records. This study began last summer with an evaluation of New Brunswick heat events. We showed that New Brunswick has had an increase of daytime heat events in recent decades and nighttime heat events are becoming more commonplace. In the course of expanding our analysis to seven stations, we have found larger changes in warm nighttime temperatures than in hot daytime temperatures. Excessively warm nighttime temperatures typically get overlooked when discussing potentially dangerous heat episodes, yet they can bring about dangerous health concerns for those unable to escape persistent warmth.

Bitter Cold: February 2015 Recap and Winter 2014-2015 Review

High Point Monument photo

It will come as no surprise to those reading this report that February 2015 was one of the coldest months on record in the Garden State. The average temperature of 22.0° (11.8° below average) made this month the 3rd coldest February and 6th coldest (tied) of any month since statewide records commenced in 1895. Colder Januaries include 1918 (19.9°), 1977 (20.2°), and 1912 (21.9°), with 1940 equal to this past February.

Statewide, melted snow, ice, freezing rain, and plain rain amounted to 2.34". This was 0.52" below average and ranks as the 32nd driest February. There were five events where snow fell to a depth of 2" or more at one or more locations, however there was no statewide "blockbuster" storm. NJ February snowfall averaged 12.3", which is 4.2" above normal. The northern third of the state averaged 16.3" (+6.2"), central area 12.6" (+3.6"), and southern third 10.1" (+3.5"). The ground remained snow covered throughout the month in northern and central regions, consistently at a depth exceeding 10" in the north and closer to 5" in central areas.

Just How Cold Has It Been?

Icy Cape May

The answer: remarkably cold! As if anyone living in New Jersey has any doubt. February 2015 is destined to be one of the coldest months since statewide records commenced in 1895. As observations currently stand, along with projections through month’s end, this will likely be the second coldest February and the fourth coldest of any January or February. Table 1 lists the ten coldest Februaries, based on observations gathered from several dozen stations throughout NJ. Looking north and south, it appears as if this will be the second coldest February in the north (Hunterdon, Somerset, and Union counties northward) and third coldest in the south. This is in line with the coldest core being situated over New England and the added chilling effect of the ground being snow covered throughout the month in the north, while only being so over the last two weeks down south. The two colder Januaries were in 1918 (19.9°) and 1977 (20.2°).

The New Jersey Snow Season: A Mid-February Report Card

Snow plowing photo

As New Jerseyans shiver through a second month of below-average temperatures and a second consecutive colder-than-average winter, it is worth seeing how the state is doing in the snowfall department this season. The brief answer is twofold: first, nowhere is it nearly as snowy as last winter, and second, this year is a tale of a state with a split snow personality.

By this time last winter, folks were talking about challenging the 1995-96 winter for top snowfall honors dating all the way back to 1895. As it turned out, the bulk of winter snow had fallen north of Interstate 195 by mid to late February, while south Jersey experienced a snowy March. Statewide, the 2013-14 winter snowfall averaged 54.3”, which was 28.2” above normal and ranked as the 7th snowiest on record. It was the 4th snowiest on record in northern counties, 6th in central NJ, and 14th in the southern third.

Wooly and a Bit Wild: January 2015 Recap

Sea smoke photo

The first month of 2015 was a cold one with above-average precipitation. The form of the precipitation varied quite a bit at any particular location as well as across the state over the course of individual events. The statewide average temperature of 27.7° was 3.5° below normal, making it the 32nd coldest January since records commenced in 1895. Precipitation (rain and melted snow) averaged 4.78", which is 1.30" above normal and ranks as the 20th wettest January. Statewide, snowfall averaged 8.6", which is 1.5" above normal and ranks as the 41st snowiest January of the past 121 years. Storms of various intensities arrived every three days throughout the month, and included an impactful freezing rain and flooding event and two moderate snowstorms during the final two weeks. Several bitter cold episodes were punctuated by strong winds and frigid wind chills.

A Dreary Month, and Shades of Years Past: December and 2014 Annual Summary

Coastal Flooding from Dec 9 Nor'easter

Clouds prevailed in this darkest month of the year, making for some rather persistent dreary conditions. Until the last week of the month there were only two days (the 4th and 7th) where the sun outperformed the clouds across NJ. At least the year ended on a bright note, with lots of sun during five of the last six days. With the clouds came a fair amount of precipitation, and given milder-than-normal conditions, the vast majority was in the form of rain. Statewide precipitation averaged 4.79". This is 0.88" above the 1981–2010 mean and ranks as the 27th wettest December since 1895. The mean temperature of 38.9° was 3.3° above average and ranked as the 15th warmest on record. Snowfall averaged 0.6", some 3.5" below average and ranked as the 19th least snowy December. A strong nor'easter brought strong winds, multiple inches of rain, minor to moderate coastal flooding, and beach erosion on the 9th.

ONJSC's Top 10 NJ Weather and Climate Events of 2014

Snow removal at Metlife Stadium

Listed below is the Office of the NJ State Climatologist's ranking of the top 10 weather and climate events of 2014. More about each event can be found in the monthly narratives posted on njclimate.org. You might be tempted to rearrange the rankings, particularly as some of the events may have affected you more than others higher on the list. That's the enjoyment (and frustration!) of lists. This was the second consecutive year that was not too eventful for NJ weather and climate (goodness, we remain stunned by 2011 and 2012). Of course there is still plenty to talk about.

Winter Weather Trends: El Niño in New Jersey

Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

As we have mentioned in our past evaluations of the El Niño’s significance in the summer and fall, we are back again to analyze the wintertime impacts of a developing El Niño on New Jersey weather. An El Niño occurs when warmer-than-average waters exist in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, specifically near the equatorial latitudes. This warming is due to a weakening of winds moving to the west, which typically transport warmer waters to the western Pacific, permitting cooler water to upwell to the surface in the east. When these winds are weaker or if they reverse direction, warm water stays in the east. The warmer sea surface temperatures in the east and the altered atmospheric flow pattern create a new dynamic between the ocean and atmosphere. The newly formed interaction sets up distinct and repetitive weather patterns across the world. No two El Niño events are alike; they vary depending on the magnitude and location of where the largest temperature anomalies are found. However, each one tends to alter weather patterns outside the overall norm.

A Cool Damp Month, and All Things Considered, a Rather Average Season: November and Fall 2014 Recap

Wantage snow Nov 27

While cooler conditions took some time to arrive in New Jersey this fall, once here they locked in for the most part, as the November average temperature of 41.9° was 3.7° below the 1981-2010 average. This ranks as the 24th coolest November of the past 120 years. November precipitation (rain and melted snow) averaged 4.58" across the state. This is 0.94" above average and ranks as 31st wettest. On two occasions measurable snow was reported in northern and central areas, with these regions, respectively, picking up 4.6" and 1.9" on average for the month, with over a foot accumulating at higher elevations. Despite no snow accumulating in the south, the statewide average was 1.7", which is 1.3" above average. It is only the second November to average above an inch since 1995, the other in 2012. A Thanksgiving eve storm delivered a white Thanksgiving to central and northern counties.

City, State	Temp
Lower Alloways Creek, NJ	74
Lyndhurst, NJ	73
Mannington Twp., NJ	73
Jersey City, NJ	73
Logan Twp., NJ	73

City, State	Temp
High Point Monument, NJ	66
Vernon Twp., NJ	68
Hackettstown, NJ	68
High Point, NJ	68
Woodland Twp., NJ	69

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