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Snowfall map for January 3rd-4th
Snowfall totals from the January 3rd–4th snowfall. This minor snowfall represented the largest snow event of this generally dull weather month.

The first month of 2021 lacked major storms, whether wet or white, and temperatures rarely were either quite mild or very cold. Thus the title of this report. Yes, the last day of the month turned snowy, the harbinger of anything but a boring start to February, but that’s to be covered next month. The January statewide average temperature was 33.7°. This was 3.0° above the 1981–2010 normal and ranks as the 26th mildest January in the past 127 years. The average high was 41.1°, which is 1.8° above normal and ranks 34th mildest, while the average low of 26.3° was 4.2° above normal, ranking 20th mildest.

January precipitation (rain and melted snow) averaged 1.99” across the state, which is 1.41” below normal and ranks 13th driest since 1895. The north averaged 1.93” (-1.48”, 18th driest), the south 2.02” (-1.37”, 13th driest), and the coast 2.19” (-1.25”, 17th driest). Generally, the eastern half of the state was wetter (particularly the northeast) than the west.

Latest Extremes

City, State Temp
Jersey City, NJ 45
Howell, NJ 45
Cedar Bridge, NJ 45
West Creek, NJ 45
Silas Little, NJ 45
City, State Temp
High Point Monument, NJ 35
Walpack, NJ 35
Vernon Twp., NJ 35
High Point, NJ 37
Pequest, NJ 38
most current information as of Feb 28 10:30 AM

Latest Conditions & Forecast

New Brunswick, NJ

Rutgers University Meteorology Program

44°F

Wind

0 mph from the ENE

Wind Gust

5 mph from the NNE

Rain Likely then Rain
43 °F
Showers
40 °F
Showers Likely then Chance Showers
51 °F
Mostly Clear and Breezy
20 °F
Sunny
35 °F
Mostly Clear
25 °F
Mostly Sunny
49 °F
Partly Cloudy
30 °F
Mostly Sunny
50 °F
Mostly Clear
27 °F
Sunny
41 °F
Partly Cloudy
25 °F
Mostly Sunny
39 °F

Today

Rain, mainly after 11am. High near 43. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight

Showers. Low around 40. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday

Showers likely, mainly before 7am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 51. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 20. Breezy, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 35. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 49.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 27.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 41.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.

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Drone photos of tidal flooding near the morning high tide on December 17th

The statewide average temperature during this last month of 2020 averaged 37.0°. This was 1.8° above the 1981–2010 normal and ranks as the 22nd mildest December in the 126-year record that dates back to 1895. Northern and southern portions of NJ had similar departures and rankings. December precipitation (rain and the liquid equivalent of snow and sleet) averaged 6.24”. This includes rain measured at National Weather Service Cooperative Observing stations on the morning of December 1st but does not include rain measured at these stations for the 24 hours ending on the morning of January...

Time series of July average statewide temperatures in NJ from 1895 through 2020

For the 12th consecutive year, we in the state climate office have evaluated the myriad daily, monthly, and annual observations gathered across New Jersey during the course of the year to choose what we feel were the most significant and impactful 10 weather and climate events. More about each event can be found in the monthly narratives posted on our website. You might be tempted to rearrange the rankings, particularly as some of the events on the list may have affected you more than others ranked higher. Or perhaps you best recall one that didn't make the list. That's the enjoyment and...

CoCoRaHS rain gauge

November 2020 enters the New Jersey climate record book as the third warmest (tied with 2009). The statewide mean of 49.2° was 4.0° above the 1981–2010 normal. This month joins six Novembers from this century among the seven warmest of the past 126 years. Six of the past 12 months have ranked in the top nine for warmth. Of the first 11 months of 2020, only April and May averaged below normal. The average temperature for the first 11 months is 57.1°. This is 2.7° above normal and ranks as the second warmest such interval. Only 2012 was warmer, with both years likely to retain this ranking...

Latest Blog

Indian Mills Max Min Temps
Introduction Data have been collected from multiple NJ stations over a long period of time, some dating back to the nineteenth century. With this amount of data, we can perform a multitude of analyses on different variables, such as daily maximum or minimum temperature. In this brief report, we examine seasonal maximum minimum temperature (that is, the highest daily minimum temperature in a...
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More News

Winter Weather Trends: El Niño in New Jersey

December 19, 2014 - 4:41pm -- Jack McCarty

Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

As we have mentioned in our past evaluations of the El Niño’s significance in the summer and fall, we are back again to analyze the wintertime impacts of a developing El Niño on New Jersey weather. An El Niño occurs when warmer-than-average waters exist in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, specifically near the equatorial latitudes. This warming is due to a weakening of winds moving to the west, which typically transport warmer waters to the western Pacific, permitting cooler water to upwell to the surface in the east. When these winds are weaker or if they reverse direction, warm water stays in the east. The warmer sea surface temperatures in the east and the altered atmospheric flow pattern create a new dynamic between the ocean and atmosphere. The newly formed interaction sets up distinct and repetitive weather patterns across the world. No two El Niño events are alike; they vary depending on the magnitude and location of where the largest temperature anomalies are found. However, each one tends to alter weather patterns outside the overall norm.

A Cool Damp Month, and All Things Considered, a Rather Average Season: November and Fall 2014 Recap

December 7, 2014 - 7:32pm -- Dave Robinson

Wantage snow Nov 27

While cooler conditions took some time to arrive in New Jersey this fall, once here they locked in for the most part, as the November average temperature of 41.9° was 3.7° below the 1981-2010 average. This ranks as the 24th coolest November of the past 120 years. November precipitation (rain and melted snow) averaged 4.58" across the state. This is 0.94" above average and ranks as 31st wettest. On two occasions measurable snow was reported in northern and central areas, with these regions, respectively, picking up 4.6" and 1.9" on average for the month, with over a foot accumulating at higher elevations. Despite no snow accumulating in the south, the statewide average was 1.7", which is 1.3" above average. It is only the second November to average above an inch since 1995, the other in 2012. A Thanksgiving eve storm delivered a white Thanksgiving to central and northern counties.

Mild With Some Beneficial Rain: October 2014 Recap

November 3, 2014 - 4:57pm -- Dave Robinson

Waterspout photo

The tenth month of 2014 bucked the recent tendency toward dry conditions in northern New Jersey and proved to be the warmest month compared to normal since October 2013. Statewide, the October average temperature of 57.0° was 2.2° above the 1981-2010 average. This ranks as the 23rd warmest (tied with 1955) in 120 years (since records began in 1895). The average precipitation across NJ was 3.78". This is 0.15" below the mean and ranks as the 51st wettest October. Rainfall was above average in what have been some of the driest northern counties since mid summer. Still, from Mercer and Middlesex counties northward, precipitation has only been 50-75% of normal the past three months. Thus this area is still considered "abnormally dry" on the US Drought Monitor map.

El Niño Potential: Fall Impacts

October 15, 2014 - 10:12pm -- Jack McCarty

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Early this past summer, we reported on the potential impacts of a developing El Niño event in the tropical Pacific on summertime weather in New Jersey. While El Niños can impact the weather worldwide, we found that New Jersey's weather doesn't fluctuate with an El Niño event. This year's summer (June-August) proved to be rather comfortable, with the statewide average temperature 0.8° below the 1981-2010 average , and precipitation 0.26” above the 1981-2010 average. These mild conditions replicated what we expect out of an El Niño summer. Now we’re back to tell you the story for the fall.

Increasingly Dry in the North: September 2014 Recap

October 6, 2014 - 3:04pm -- Dave Robinson

Dry grass

Combined with below-average precipitation in August, the northern half of New Jersey has become quite dry. Conversely, rainfall has been more common in the south, thus despite a drier-than-average September, the two-month total is slightly above average. Looking first at September, statewide precipitation averaged 2.82". This is 1.25" below the 1981-2010 average and ranks as the 46th driest September since 1895. From Hunterdon, Somerset, and Union counties northward, only 1.49" fell, which is 3.00" below average and ranks as 7th driest. The southern counties averaged 3.47", which is 0.40" below average and ranks as 56th wettest.

Heat Events in New Brunswick: A Climatological Analysis

September 16, 2014 - 1:27pm -- Jack McCarty

Heat wave photo

The summertime in New Jersey is characterized by warm temperatures that give some relief from cold and dreary wintertime conditions. However, amongst pleasant summer days, the atmosphere can align in a way that makes the heat on other days rather unbearable — something that we commonly refer to as a heat wave. Heat waves have a large impact on public health, utilities, infrastructure and more, which is why we often hear the media discussing heat waves across the nation. While heat waves may call for a day at the beach, they're also a cause for public concern.

Comfort Reigns: August and Summer of 2014 Recaps

September 3, 2014 - 5:50pm -- Dave Robinson

Surf photo

A month ago, many NJ residents felt July was quite cool, while in fact it was just 0.4° below the 1981-2010 mean. Such was not the case in August, which truly was on the cool side. The statewide average temperature of 71.0° was 2.4° below average. It ranks as the 32nd coolest since 1895. Even when compared to the 1895-present mean, the month was 1.5° below average. Days with a maximum temperature of 90° or greater were hard to find, certainly a characteristic of the summer of 2014, which will be discussed later in this narrative.

Precipitation varied widely across the Garden State in August, rather typical of a summer month in these parts. Individual station totals ranged from 12.33” in Lacey Township (Ocean County) to 1.01” in Hillsborough (Somerset). When monthly totals from several dozen long-term stations were averaged together, the statewide precipitation was 4.39”. This is 0.18” above the 1981-2010 mean (0.26” below the 1895-present mean) and ranks as the 53rd wettest of the past 120 Augusts. It must be noted that the heavy rain that fell after 8 AM on the 31st is not accounted for in most August station totals. For the monthly state average, only several stations that observe at midnight have their full August 31st totals included, while monthly totals at most other National Weather Service Cooperative stations only run through the morning of the 31st. For more on this observing practice, see the April 2014 report.

New Jersey Hurricane Hunting: A brief recap of a small state’s big hurricane history

August 21, 2014 - 1:35pm -- Tom Karmel

Doria flooding photo

With more than a third of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season behind us, many may assume this season has been quiet. However, the two hurricanes already named mark the first time since 1992 when the first two named storms have reached hurricane strength and the first time there have been two hurricanes by this date since 2008. With the peak of the tropical season yet to come, the question is whether the heart of the season will be active or quiet. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center recently updated their seasonal forecast, projecting only a 5% chance of an active season and 70% chance of a less than normal one. Still, it only takes one storm to seriously impact NJ, so we can never let our guard down. With this in mind, here is a brief history of memorable tropical cyclones affecting New Jersey and a summary of the frequency of storms through the hurricane season.

Mid-Atlantic Deluge

August 13, 2014 - 5:40pm -- Dave Robinson

Rainfall estimate map

Extremely heavy rain drenched portions of the Mid-Atlantic during the daytime hours on August 12 until after sunrise on the 13th. Starting off in the Washington-Baltimore area and moving up into central Long Island, a narrow ribbon of rainfall exceeding 5”, and over 10” in a few locales, resulted in flash flooding that resulted in water rescues and many damaged roads and vehicles. Excessively heavy rains, occasionally accompanied by lightning, traveled up a frontal boundary that was associated with an unusually strong August low-pressure system situated over the Great Lakes. The atmospheric impulses riding up this front joined forces with abundant atmospheric moisture (in the top 1% for the region) to bring multiple inches per hour rainfall rates…for multiple hours.

The heaviest rain was situated within less than a 10-mile wide path. Within 20 miles on either side, totals fell off to a mere inch or two, or even less. Such is the nature of these events, where despite the abundant atmospheric moisture, there is a finite amount of water available. The dynamics concentrated the atmospheric lifting, thus the condensation of the majority of the moisture and resultant rainfall, while adjacent areas balanced out the lifted air with subsiding air that greatly limited rainfall totals.

A Rather Average July, Believe It or Not: July 2014 Summary

August 4, 2014 - 6:26pm -- Dave Robinson

Thunderstorm photo

Despite a general feeling amongst NJ residents that July 2014 was a cold summer month, in actuality, compared to long-term records, it was rather average. The statewide average temperature of 74.5° was 0.5° below the 1981-2010 mean. However, it was 0.3° above the 1895-present mean and ranked as the 45th warmest July of the past 119 years. Even the number of afternoons with temperatures of 90° or higher was close to normal. So why the common misperception? Some armchair psychology brings me to four possibilities:

1) The first half of the month was above average, while the more recent weeks were on the cool side. Our perceptions are biased toward the most recent.

2) People have yet to “recover" from the cold start of 2014. The dubious media ramblings of the “polar vortex" returning to the eastern US in mid-July fueled these thoughts.

3) The most recent four NJ Julys all rank in the top six for warmth over the past 119 years. This was an amazing run of hot Julys.

4) Those sticking their toes in the Jersey surf in early July were shocked by water temperatures in the 50°s and may have equated this to the cool July atmosphere. The cold surf was actually indicative of persistent southerly winds that brought atmospheric warmth. This wind flow led to coastal upwelling that pushed warmer surface waters offshore and introduced cool deeper waters to the surf zone.

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