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The convention of the weather and climate community has been to calculate the observed daily mean temperature by summing the maximum and minimum instantaneous temperatures during a 24-hour period and dividing by two. However, does this recording method capture and represent the true average temperature over the course of a day? This conventional approach fails to integrate significant behaviors of temperature associated with rapid weather events, frontal passages, sea breezes, and even seasonal temperature variations. It is possible that sampling more frequently and finding a more representative value for daily temperature averages will reveal patterns in which the daily mean temperature skews towards the daily maximum or minimum (i.e., the full-day average temperature is more often closer to the daily maximum or the daily minimum).

Latest Extremes

City, State Temp
West Cape May, NJ 66
Seaside Heights, NJ 63
West Deptford, NJ 63
Jersey City, NJ 63
Pennsauken, NJ 63
City, State Temp
Walpack, NJ 48
Pequest, NJ 48
Hope, NJ 49
Basking Ridge, NJ 49
Hopewell Twp., NJ 50
most current information as of Jun 28 6:35 AM

Latest Conditions & Forecast

New Brunswick, NJ

Rutgers University Meteorology Program

54°F

Wind

0 mph from the WNW

Wind Gust

2 mph from the NW

Sunny
80 °F
Mostly Clear
60 °F
Mostly Sunny
86 °F
Partly Cloudy
68 °F
Partly Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms
90 °F
Slight Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
70 °F
Partly Sunny then Chance T-storms
89 °F
Chance T-storms
72 °F
Chance T-storms
88 °F
Partly Cloudy
69 °F
Mostly Sunny
88 °F
Mostly Cloudy
68 °F
Chance T-storms
86 °F

Today

Sunny, with a high near 80. Light northwest wind becoming west 6 to 11 mph in the morning.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Southwest wind 8 to 15 mph.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southwest wind around 13 mph.

Friday

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Southwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Independence Day

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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Bayonne street flooding

It is always comforting to enter the water demand season, namely summer, with a bit of a hydrological cushion. Such is the case this year across NJ, thanks to ample rain and some late-season snow in recent months. This timely precipitation has eliminated drought concerns that stemmed from drier-than-normal intervals during 2016. As a result of the precipitation deficits, ground water, streamflow, and reservoirs all dropped to precarious levels, thus the issuance last fall of a drought warning by the NJ Department of Environmental Protection over northern NJ and a drought watch in some...

Cherry blossom photo

Following a March with the first substantially below-average monthly temperature anomaly in NJ in over a year, April brought a return to record warmth last seen in February. With a statewide average of 56.0°, the month was 5.1° above the 1981–2010 mean. This ranked as the warmest April since statewide records commenced in 1895. Five of the top 10 and nine of the top 20 mildest Aprils of the past 123 years have occurred since 2002. With the warmth of January, February, and April hardly balanced by the colder March, this year is off to the 4th warmest start on record. Only January–April...

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Latest Blog Posts

The following report was written by Eric Davis, a Chatham High School Senior, based on research performed during 1-month internship at the Office of the NJ State Climatologist The convention of the weather and climate community has been to calculate the observed daily mean temperature by summing the maximum and minimum instantaneous temperatures during a 24-hour period and dividing by two....
Radar image
The several-hour-long downpour that drenched parts of Mercer and Middlesex County on the afternoon of July 30, 2016, represented an exceptionally rare event for the area. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms dropped 7.23” in West Windsor (Mercer County), with Plainsboro (Mercer) reporting 5.15”, South Brunswick (Middlesex) 5.03,” and North Brunswick (Middlesex) 4.90”. These rainfall totals were...

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Mild With Some Beneficial Rain: October 2014 Recap

November 3, 2014 - 4:57pm -- Dave Robinson

Waterspout photo

The tenth month of 2014 bucked the recent tendency toward dry conditions in northern New Jersey and proved to be the warmest month compared to normal since October 2013. Statewide, the October average temperature of 57.0° was 2.2° above the 1981-2010 average. This ranks as the 23rd warmest (tied with 1955) in 120 years (since records began in 1895). The average precipitation across NJ was 3.78". This is 0.15" below the mean and ranks as the 51st wettest October. Rainfall was above average in what have been some of the driest northern counties since mid summer. Still, from Mercer and Middlesex counties northward, precipitation has only been 50-75% of normal the past three months. Thus this area is still considered "abnormally dry" on the US Drought Monitor map.

El Niño Potential: Fall Impacts

October 15, 2014 - 10:12pm -- Jack McCarty

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Early this past summer, we reported on the potential impacts of a developing El Niño event in the tropical Pacific on summertime weather in New Jersey. While El Niños can impact the weather worldwide, we found that New Jersey's weather doesn't fluctuate with an El Niño event. This year's summer (June-August) proved to be rather comfortable, with the statewide average temperature 0.8° below the 1981-2010 average , and precipitation 0.26” above the 1981-2010 average. These mild conditions replicated what we expect out of an El Niño summer. Now we’re back to tell you the story for the fall.

Increasingly Dry in the North: September 2014 Recap

October 6, 2014 - 3:04pm -- Dave Robinson

Dry grass

Combined with below-average precipitation in August, the northern half of New Jersey has become quite dry. Conversely, rainfall has been more common in the south, thus despite a drier-than-average September, the two-month total is slightly above average. Looking first at September, statewide precipitation averaged 2.82". This is 1.25" below the 1981-2010 average and ranks as the 46th driest September since 1895. From Hunterdon, Somerset, and Union counties northward, only 1.49" fell, which is 3.00" below average and ranks as 7th driest. The southern counties averaged 3.47", which is 0.40" below average and ranks as 56th wettest.

Heat Events in New Brunswick: A Climatological Analysis

September 16, 2014 - 1:27pm -- Jack McCarty

Heat wave photo

The summertime in New Jersey is characterized by warm temperatures that give some relief from cold and dreary wintertime conditions. However, amongst pleasant summer days, the atmosphere can align in a way that makes the heat on other days rather unbearable — something that we commonly refer to as a heat wave. Heat waves have a large impact on public health, utilities, infrastructure and more, which is why we often hear the media discussing heat waves across the nation. While heat waves may call for a day at the beach, they're also a cause for public concern.

Comfort Reigns: August and Summer of 2014 Recaps

September 3, 2014 - 5:50pm -- Dave Robinson

Surf photo

A month ago, many NJ residents felt July was quite cool, while in fact it was just 0.4° below the 1981-2010 mean. Such was not the case in August, which truly was on the cool side. The statewide average temperature of 71.0° was 2.4° below average. It ranks as the 32nd coolest since 1895. Even when compared to the 1895-present mean, the month was 1.5° below average. Days with a maximum temperature of 90° or greater were hard to find, certainly a characteristic of the summer of 2014, which will be discussed later in this narrative.

Precipitation varied widely across the Garden State in August, rather typical of a summer month in these parts. Individual station totals ranged from 12.33” in Lacey Township (Ocean County) to 1.01” in Hillsborough (Somerset). When monthly totals from several dozen long-term stations were averaged together, the statewide precipitation was 4.39”. This is 0.18” above the 1981-2010 mean (0.26” below the 1895-present mean) and ranks as the 53rd wettest of the past 120 Augusts. It must be noted that the heavy rain that fell after 8 AM on the 31st is not accounted for in most August station totals. For the monthly state average, only several stations that observe at midnight have their full August 31st totals included, while monthly totals at most other National Weather Service Cooperative stations only run through the morning of the 31st. For more on this observing practice, see the April 2014 report.

New Jersey Hurricane Hunting: A brief recap of a small state’s big hurricane history

August 21, 2014 - 1:35pm -- Tom Karmel

Doria flooding photo

With more than a third of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season behind us, many may assume this season has been quiet. However, the two hurricanes already named mark the first time since 1992 when the first two named storms have reached hurricane strength and the first time there have been two hurricanes by this date since 2008. With the peak of the tropical season yet to come, the question is whether the heart of the season will be active or quiet. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center recently updated their seasonal forecast, projecting only a 5% chance of an active season and 70% chance of a less than normal one. Still, it only takes one storm to seriously impact NJ, so we can never let our guard down. With this in mind, here is a brief history of memorable tropical cyclones affecting New Jersey and a summary of the frequency of storms through the hurricane season.

Mid-Atlantic Deluge

August 13, 2014 - 5:40pm -- Dave Robinson

Rainfall estimate map

Extremely heavy rain drenched portions of the Mid-Atlantic during the daytime hours on August 12 until after sunrise on the 13th. Starting off in the Washington-Baltimore area and moving up into central Long Island, a narrow ribbon of rainfall exceeding 5”, and over 10” in a few locales, resulted in flash flooding that resulted in water rescues and many damaged roads and vehicles. Excessively heavy rains, occasionally accompanied by lightning, traveled up a frontal boundary that was associated with an unusually strong August low-pressure system situated over the Great Lakes. The atmospheric impulses riding up this front joined forces with abundant atmospheric moisture (in the top 1% for the region) to bring multiple inches per hour rainfall rates…for multiple hours.

The heaviest rain was situated within less than a 10-mile wide path. Within 20 miles on either side, totals fell off to a mere inch or two, or even less. Such is the nature of these events, where despite the abundant atmospheric moisture, there is a finite amount of water available. The dynamics concentrated the atmospheric lifting, thus the condensation of the majority of the moisture and resultant rainfall, while adjacent areas balanced out the lifted air with subsiding air that greatly limited rainfall totals.

A Rather Average July, Believe It or Not: July 2014 Summary

August 4, 2014 - 6:26pm -- Dave Robinson

Thunderstorm photo

Despite a general feeling amongst NJ residents that July 2014 was a cold summer month, in actuality, compared to long-term records, it was rather average. The statewide average temperature of 74.5° was 0.5° below the 1981-2010 mean. However, it was 0.3° above the 1895-present mean and ranked as the 45th warmest July of the past 119 years. Even the number of afternoons with temperatures of 90° or higher was close to normal. So why the common misperception? Some armchair psychology brings me to four possibilities:

1) The first half of the month was above average, while the more recent weeks were on the cool side. Our perceptions are biased toward the most recent.

2) People have yet to “recover" from the cold start of 2014. The dubious media ramblings of the “polar vortex" returning to the eastern US in mid-July fueled these thoughts.

3) The most recent four NJ Julys all rank in the top six for warmth over the past 119 years. This was an amazing run of hot Julys.

4) Those sticking their toes in the Jersey surf in early July were shocked by water temperatures in the 50°s and may have equated this to the cool July atmosphere. The cold surf was actually indicative of persistent southerly winds that brought atmospheric warmth. This wind flow led to coastal upwelling that pushed warmer surface waters offshore and introduced cool deeper waters to the surf zone.

So this is how a normal July feels...

July 27, 2014 - 8:45pm -- Dave Robinson

Beach sunset photo

Another comfortable mid-summer air mass is destined to invade the Garden State this week. This arrives on the heels of several other mild, dry air masses that have contributed to making this a rather average July in the temperature department. While many may think that this has been an exceptionally cool summer, it has not. However, given that the most recent four Julys all ranked within the top six for heat dating all the way back to 1895, all are forgiven for any misperception!

The overall pattern that has led to temperatures more often being on the cool than than warm side of the ledger since last fall is one of pronounced waviness in the jet stream, with a resultant tendency for a ridge (northward swing) in western North America and a trough (dip in the jet) in the east. This allows cool and dry air to infiltrate our region, with warm and humid air kept at bay to the south. It has also kept the west in severe drought and plenty warm.

Soaking rains keep much of the Garden State green

July 17, 2014 - 10:59pm -- Dave Robinson

Heavy rain photo

The past week has seen localized soaking rains across much of NJ, though not everywhere has gotten clobbered. The map below shows rainfall totals from Sunday morning the 13th through the morning of the 16th. Over this roughly 72 hour interval as much as 8.52” fell in Howell Township (Monmouth County), followed by Belmar (Monmouth) with 7.42”, Wall Township (Ocean) 7.22”, Millstone Township (Monmouth) 5.98”, and Raritan (Somerset) 5.42”. To demonstrate the local variability of the precipitation, four Bridgewater (Somerset) locations received 5.09”, 4.55”, 4.41” and 3.88”. Differences were even more pronounced over distances of several tens of miles. For instance, only 20 miles from Howell, rainfall totaled just 0.89” at Seaside Heights (Ocean) to the south and 2.42” in Rumson (Monmouth) to the north.

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